Initial approach dating

On the other hand, the unemployment rate often continues to rise after activity has reached its trough.In this respect, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.A: A bulge in jobless claims usually forecasts declining employment and rising unemployment, but we do not use the initial claims numbers in determining our chronology, partly because of noise in that data series.

Consequently, we picked the peak month based on the clear signal in employment, as well as our consideration of output and other measures.Thus, the unemployment rate is often a leading indicator of the business-cycle peak.For example, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level prior to the December 2007 peak of activity in May 2007 at 4.4 percent and climbed to 5.0 percent by December 2007.The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in the recessions of 20-2009.Q: How does the committee weight employment in determining the dates of peaks and troughs? In the 2007-2009 recession, the central indicators–real GDP and real GDI–gave mixed signals about the peak date and a clear signal about the trough date.

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